推动网易狂涨60倍的神秘金手指－2003 report 2009/05/23

市场也许就是这样奇妙。

　　一年以前，大家都还在讨论新浪（SINA.NASDAQ），搜狐（SOHU．NASDAQ），以及网易（NTES．NASDAQ）是否因为会因为股价太低，而被美国证监会取消上市资格，“扫地出门”。

　　如今，三大中文门户网站一改往日“颓废”，历经数年连续亏损，目前中国互联网三大门户网站在相继实现盈利之后，终于激情燃烧了一把。其股价一路飙升，成为NASDAQ炫目的三颗明星。

　　在明星的身后，NASDAP出现了三只神秘的手掌Driehaus、ALKEON、DRESDNER RCM。

　　Driehaus守得云开月明

　　在中国三大门户一路猛涨，国内投资者普遍质疑这纯属投机炒作，认为三大门户股市行情已经脱离Nasdaq市场本身，其背后疑有主力操作。

　　武汉证券分析师余凯则旗帜鲜明地认为，其背后有人炒作的可能性很大。他认为，在纳斯达克，目前网络科技股放量走强，eBay、yahoo都有良好表现，整个纳斯达克已回升了三到四成。

　　余凯指出，经济持续高速增长的中国、三大门户概念股扭亏转盈，正好应时而生，自然会受到追捧。但也值得注意的是，这几只股票都属于小盘股，投机比较容易，只要有几千万美金就可以把股价“炒飞起来”。再加上网站宣布扭亏为盈，有题材可以发挥，股价随着公司方面频频利好而节节盘升。

　　搜狐、新浪和网易2002年前三个季度成交量都非常低，无论是股价还是成交量大幅度的提升是从2002年第四季度开始的。三家网络公司上市至今，一直较少主承销商后续的研究和分析推介。事实上，目前大多数投资银行都还没有为这几家网络公司设立专门的分析员。

　　根据NASDAP资料显示，Driehaus公司在中国三大门户网站的机构持股人中都名列第一，在2003年3月31日分别掌控网易、搜狐和新浪4．41％、4．33％和 4．41％。

　　Driehaus公司何方神圣，它是炒作三大门户的主力吗？该公司总部注册于芝加哥，持仓总市值是17．8亿。专门为机构客户、高净值个人和共同基金投资者提供投资管理服务。但按照EdgerOnline的资料，截至2003年3月31日，该基金拥有的网易股票升值了66％，但新浪和搜狐仍然亏损了26．42％和16．39％，据此推测，该基金应当是在NASDAP上一轮网络高潮时建仓，不幸被套，终于可以在2003年第一季度等到解套机会，也算是守得云开见月明吧，从3月31日到现在，该机构持有的股票又都有翻倍的回报。

　　从网易、搜狐、新浪的机构增仓表（从2002年12月31日到2003年3月31日）上，也可以看出，这三个月，Driehaus公司增持比例有限分别增长了63.66％、16．39％、26.42％。

　　真正杀将出来的黑马很多。在2003年3月31日的十大机构投资人中，有7家是此前完全无一股股票的新手，来势凶猛，而且配合默契。而搜狐就更加生猛，增持比例超过1000％和全新投资人达到8家，新浪也有7家。

　　在这些新鲜出笼的机构投资者中，不乏大机构如DRESDNER RCM，分别持有网易、搜狐、新浪市值别为565．7万（第9）、1073．6万（第3）、610．9万（第8）美元，而其兄弟公司DRESDNERBANK也持有搜狐1073.6万美元（第4）、网易565．7万美元（第10）。它显然是搜狐狂涨的主力。此外，LEGGMASON公司、VEREDUS都是持仓数百亿美元的大机构，比较起来，三大门户网站在其中的比重就太小了，大机构只是略微关注中国概念。

　　神秘ALKEON引领爆发

　　最为引人注目的是一家小机构，同时抢进为搜狐第二与网易第三机构投资人的一家叫作ALKEON资本管理的公司：注册于美国纽约曼哈顿大厦350号，截至2003年3月底，仓位总市值6.06亿美元。为网易第四大机构投资人，持股市值1216万美元，是搜狐的第二大持有机构，持股市值1085.6万美元，新浪第9大股东，持有市值478万美元，有趣的是，其持有这三支股票的数量与这三支股票的股价成正比，可以将之看成此轮炒作的领导指标机构。该资本管理公司重仓于IT类企业，仓位比例51.2％，其他行业涉猎平均。

　　在新浪新投资者构中排位最高（总排位第4）是VEREDUS资产管理公司：注册于美国路易丝韦尔，仓位总市值12．26亿美元。该资产管理公司业务注重金融领域的拓展，其仓位中金融衍生产品比重为28.6％，服务类23．1％，IT类11．9％，金融类10．3％。整体操作风格比较迅猛，仓位集中，为一家中小型侧重金融衍生工具的机构。

　　“这证明了中国资本界对此轮操作者的基本判断：这些介入的基金公司大多是比较冒进的基金，属快进快出的那一种。因此美国投机型的基金和机构在操作网易、搜狐和新浪方面是主力，而小型机构是否与国内资金乃至与三大门户网站有默契就不得而知了。”一位资深分析员说。

　　而更有消息渠道证实，一些来自中国内地的庄家也积极参与了网易的炒作。甚至有坊间笑谈–逃往国外的庄家吕梁纠集一伙资金组织了这次三大门户的炒作。

　　香港国泰君安一位高层人士透露，来自北京的先知先觉的机构是这次炒作的主流资金，因为近水楼台的关系，北京机构是最早知道三大门户网站扭亏为盈，也是这波行情中最早介入的资金。来自浙江和深圳方面的资金则是短线跟风盘。

　　但对于网易后面是否有人在炒作，丁磊不置可否。从223年5月21到6月11日，丁磊控制的SHINING GLOBEINTL通过高盛减持了88万股网易的股票。

　　郎咸平：不排除炒作可能

　　“不能排除有资金在炒作这三支股票的可能性。”以“郎监管”闻名的香港中文大学教授郎咸平这样指出。

　　不过，郎咸平认为：仅从这三支股票的图形上来说，目前也无法确认有“庄家”正在进行炒作这一说，因为假设性还太强。如果这三个中国门户网络股票的价格涨幅远远超过了美国同类高科技股票的价格涨幅，或是盈利居中，但市盈率远高于市场水平，才有可能被怀疑市场上有人为炒作的因素在里面。

　　“也赚到钱的小股东不会进行投诉。”郎咸平进一步指出：在这种的单边上涨中，一直在稳定的上升，股价没有大幅度的波动，最多只能算作是有市场投机力量进入。如果有基金大笔买进，也可解释为对中国概念的网络股“情有独钟”，属于正常的投资行为，美国的证券监管当局也不会有太大的举动。

　　“通过单边上涨这样的方式操纵股价，美国证监会最终是以‘私下和解’的形式解决。”不管是用什么方法获得赢利，如果股价稳步上升，或是稳定下降，都不会引发监管当局的注意力。但是，一旦股价崩盘，有大幅下跌的情况，大笔抛售股票的机构一定会受到美国证监会的关注，要求做出合理解释。通过这种方法，以防止不正常的市场炒作行为。

　　投机泡沫VS．价值回归

　　围绕三大网络股的定价合理与否的问题，华尔街已经展开了激烈的争论。

　　著名的BARRON’S杂志首先发难，严重质疑三大网络股的股价。BARRON文章中指出，尽管三大网络股成功的幸存下来，并成为了各自领域的第一门户。但它们的定价过于昂贵。

　　如果按照2003年的预测EPS计算，在互联网行业以外的其他行业中，一些顶尖的高成长公司，像AMGEN、是巴克咖啡等，也仅有30～37倍的市盈率。而科技行业的领先公司–微软、INTEL、CISCO，仅有20～30倍的市盈率。

　　同时，BARRON’S还进一步置疑互联网的增长潜力，认为传统大公司进入网络电子商务的竞争压力、即将实施的对网上交易征税的政策，都将大大影响三大网络巨头的增K潜力。

　　不过，华尔街追棒网络股人士则对BARRON’S 的观点大加反驳，THE STHEET．COM就发表了一篇文章，逐条批驳了BARRON’S的观点。

　　“这应该算是一种价值回归吧。虽然涨了很多倍，但是按每股收益计算，这三个门广网络股的动态市盈率并不算太高。”国泰君安证券公司的行业公司部副经理邵健如是说。

　　对于所谓的三大中国网络股股价异常，邵健则不以为然。邵以动态市盈率为例举证，2003年eBay、YAHOO的动态市盈率分别为70～75倍、100倍左右；而网易、搜狐和新浪的动态市盈率则分别为35倍、60～70倍、55倍。

　　“与国外网站相比，我们市盈率并不高，而且还有更大升值空间。”邵说，言词之中略有喜悦之情。

　　在记者追问下，邵承认，在低价位时（约l美元左右）他曾购下新浪及搜狐的股票，为此获利不少。

What Social Security’s Underfunding Means for Your Retirement 2009/05/14

by Emily Brandon
Thursday, May 14, 2009provided by

Social Security and Medicare’s annual checkup revealed that the recession and longer life expectancies are taxing the health of the entitlement system. The Social Security Board of Trustees report found that program costs will exceed tax revenues in 2016, a year sooner than predicted in last year’s report. The trust fund will be exhausted in 2037, four years sooner than the 2008 estimate. Here’s a look at how the projections could affect your retirement plans.

 Smooth sailing for the baby boomers. In 2037, the year the trust fund is currently projected to be depleted, the youngest baby boomers, currently age 45, will be 73. It’s highly unlikely that baby boomers will face a rise in the retirement age or cuts in benefits. “The good news for current beneficiaries and those nearing retirement is that your benefits will remain secure and intact for the foreseeable future,” says Nancy LeaMond, executive vice president of AARP, a lobbying group for older Americans.

Changes for younger people. Social Security and Medicare will still be around for younger generations. But there is some uncertainty about whether there will be tax increases, benefit cuts, some combination of the two, or other fixes to correct the underfunding. “You can sort of count on the fact that if there are any changes in benefits they will be in a downward direction, and then individuals like us will have to provide more of our own income through our own personal savings and our employer-provided plans,” says Bruce Schobel, president-elect of the American Academy of Actuaries. “I think it’s a very safe bet that in the process of restoring financial soundness, the government is very unlikely to expand the benefits.”

Making up the difference. Social Security currently replaces about 41 percent of preretirement income for most Americans when they retire. Americans without traditional pensions who want to maintain their standard of living after retirement need to save whatever amount they need above that on their own. We don’t know exactly how the government will recalibrate the retirement system to fix the shortfall, so younger Americans can’t calculate precisely what their retirement benefits will be. But it can’t hurt to save or invest a little extra cash in case benefit amounts decrease.

Longer life expectancy. In addition to the recession, Americans’ increasing life expectancy is contributing to the depletion of the Social Security trust fund. “Americans are living slightly longer than we’d previously assumed,” says Andrew Biggs, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration. “Increased longevity means more people collecting benefits for longer, which is a recipe for larger deficits.” Americans now generally live 17 to 19 years after age 65, up from 12 to 13 years in 1940. The Obama administration has said it does not have plans to raise the retirement age and instead favors plans to raise Social Security payroll taxes for those making over $250,000 a year by 2 to 4 percent (combined employer and employee), but a future administration could. Younger workers may want to plan to work a few years past their current full retirement age, 67, for their own financial security. Working just an extra year or two is one of the quickest ways to pad your retirement accounts and reduce the number of years over which your savings must be spread. Plus, under current law, Social Security payouts increase for each year you delay signing up between age 62 and 70.

Making Medicare healthy. Medicare’s funding ailments are expected to occur even sooner than Social Security’s. Projected annual assets for the hospital insurance portion of Medicare are expected to exceed expenditures by 2012. The hospital insurance trust fund is expected to be exhausted by 2017, two years earlier than projected in last year’s report. Medicare Part B, which covers doctors’ bills and other outpatient expenses, and Part D prescription drug coverage are more adequately financed in the short term, but increases in healthcare costs over the long term will average 6.4 percent annually and require increases in enrollee premiums and general revenue funding.

Most current retirees will not be subject to large premium increases in the short term because of a law that limits premium increases to the dollar amount of the annual increase in Social Security benefits. A Congressional Budget Office report predicts that there will be no cost-of-living increases for Social Security beneficiaries in 2010 through 2012, which also means no Medicare Part B premium hike for the majority of beneficiaries. But new enrollees and current beneficiaries with incomes above $85,000 this year ($170,000 for couples),who make up approximately one quarter of Part B enrollees, could be charged unusually large premium increases over the next two years. Premiums for Medicare Part B and D and the prices for out-of-pocket medical expenses not covered by Medicare are likely to further increase in the future.

The Problem with Debt 2009/05/14

The Problem with Debt

Posted May 14, 2009 09:00am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession,Banking, HousinG

From The Business Insider, May 14, 2009:

15.4 million homeowners now owe more on their houses than their houses are worth, up from 13.6 million four months ago.  The number will probably top 20 million when all is said and done.  To mark this sad stat, we’ve updated our post from last fall on the power of leverage.

---

As Warren Buffett succinctly observed, anything multiplied by zero is zero.

Put differently, when the value of the asset drops below the value of the debt used to buy it, poof.

Nowhere is this concept more important than in the housing market.  A couple of years back, the value of US residential real estate was about $25 trillion. Mortgage debt constituted about 45% of that ($11 trillion) and owner equity 55% ($13 trillion). (Very rough numbers)

Now, the value of the US housing market is down almost 30% and headed to, arguably, down 40%.  In other words, if the peak value was $25 trillion, the current value is about $18 trillion, and the trough value will be about $15 trillion.  So what will happen to homeowner equity?  It will drop by 70%.

PEAK
Value: $25T
Mortgage Debt: $11T
Homeowner Equity: $14T

TROUGH
Value: $15T
Mortgage Debt: $11T
Homeowner Equity: $4T

Ouch.  And by the way, that percentage holds regardless of what the actual peak value of the housing market was, as long as you start with 45% debt-to-value.  Also, most of that equity is owned by folks who own their houses outright.

And what happens if you have a more typical debt-to-value ratio–say, 80% debt?  Then, unfortunately, your equity IS going to zero.  In fact, it will only take a 20% fall in the house price for that to happen.  That’s why so many households are now underwater.

PEAK
House Value:  $500,000
Mortgage (80%): $400,000
Equity: $100,000

TROUGH
House Value (down 40%):  $300,000
Mortgage (80%): $400,000
Equity: -$100,000

That’s also why lot of consumer households will get wiped out. 

(By the way, this is what killed all those Wall Street banks.  Unlike consumers, they didn’t have 45% debt-to-value ratios or even 80% debt-to-value ratios. They had 97%-debt-to-equity ratios.  So it didn’t take much of a decline in equity to blow them to smithereens.)

What about stock portfolios?

The worst peak-to-trough stock market drop was 1929-1932, when the S&P 500 dropped 86%.  Horrific, but not zero.  (Unless you were carrying margin debt).  But here’s keeping our fingers crossed that the S&P 500 bottomed when it was down 56%. 

And, to close on a happier note, here are some things that almost definitely aren’t going to zero:

• Consumers that have enough cash flow that they won’t get forced out of their houses when their equity is zero (the house prices will eventually recover, and then the same leverage will work on the upside).

• Investors who don’t panic and sell stocks at the bottom.  As long as the portfolio is diversified and the companies don’t go bankrupt–see below–the prices will eventually come back.

• Companies with no debt and strong cash flow that would still generate cash if you cut their revenue significantly. 

A few prominent examples of such companies in tech-land?

The par value of U.S. corporate bonds affected by downgrades hit a high of $522.4 billion 2009/05/14

Fitch Ratings-New York-13 May 2009: The par value of U.S. corporate bonds affected by downgrades hit a high of $522.4 billion in the first quarter (up from $391.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008), resulting in a downgrade rate of 14.5%, as the financial and economic crisis continued to take a toll on corporate credit quality, according to a new Fitch report. The first quarter of 2009 also saw another unwelcome milestone as the share of U.S. corporate bonds rated ‘AAA’ fell below 1% of market volume while the share of ‘CCC’ rated issues moved up again to a new high of 6.8%. In total, the ‘AAA’ category saw $176.2 billion in downgrades while the ‘AA’ category featured an additional $142.1 billion. Overall, downgrades affected 14.5% ($426.4 billion) of investment grade U.S. bond market volume in the first quarter while upgrades affected 0.3% ($9.1 billion). On the speculative grade front, the effects of negative and positive changes were 14.8% ($96 billion) and 1.7% ($10.8 billion), respectively. A positive development in the first quarter was a strong rebound in issuance, tallying $184.9 billion following dismal third- and fourth-quarter 2008 activity of just $80.8 billion and $74.4 billion, respectively. While an impressive turnaround, this strength came from highly rated, defensive industrial names. Financial and speculative grade issuance remained very low. The new report, titled ‘U.S. Corporate Bond Market: A Review of First-Quarter 2009 Rating and Issuance Activity’, offers additional details on issuance patterns, rating activity by broad market sector and industry, and bonds coming due. The report is available on the Fitch Ratings web site at www.fitchratings.com under ‘Credit Market Research’. I

Options Trader: Thankful Friday -May 08, 2009 2009/05/10

Options Trader: Thankful Friday 

May 08, 2009 | about stocks: DIA / FAZ    

I am very happy we cashed out.

We cashed out our longs, as planned, very close to the top and yesterday, at 1:47, I sent out an Alert to Members titled: “Not Being Greedy With May Shorts” in which I said: “At this point, with our put plays all back in black – we need to start stopping out if they get the market back over 8,400 (our goal was to get to cash and this is a gift). With a 50 point Dow trailing stop if we head lower than 8,360. Ideally, we should be out of any May puts (or May anythings) and cautious about June. If it’s a real sell-off, we use the cash to scale into June puts (which would include FAZ calls of course).” That was a FANTASTIC call (if I do say so myself) as we bottomed out at 8,358 at 3:33, by which time we were already cashed out ahead of the usual stick save.

It was a perfect day as we stuck with our plan from Wednesday night to press our short bets into the gap up open we expected, and we’re now in cash and are likely to day-trade a few short-side bets this morning but cash is still going to be king going into the weekend. This will be a short post as I am already working on our next round of bank plays for members as we also cashed out most of our sample $100,000 Hedged Portfolio ahead of the stress tests and are itching to take up some new positions so I wrote a new post entitled “Stress-Free Investing In Stress-Tested Banks” with plenty of new entries we’ll be looking to make into next week.

The Jobs report showed a loss of “only” 539,000 jobs but last month was revised up 69,000 which everyone seems determined to ignore. Unemployment is up 0.4% to 8.9%, the worst since Sept 1983. If the government hadn’t added 72,000 jobs (mostly census workers) this would not be at all pretty so we will be shorting the Dow at the open as a day trade and taking off our put covers against our long DIA puts, perhaps recovering into the weekend if we get a nice sell-off.

Oil is back at $58 so we’ll be shorting that into the weekend (I’m shorting the futures now below $58 with a stop there) as Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC)gave poor reports with poor outlook. We know our auto industry sucks but if those two can’t sell cars either then the people buying oil are certifiable and we are happy to take their money.

Asia was up a point and Europe is up about 1.5% on bank fever but I see projected losses of up to $599 (not $600) BILLION by our 19 largest banks alone if the economy does not improve. So forgive us if we hold onto our cash over the weekend while we wait for people to sober up.

Have a nice weekend.